Let's start with the squad, because the squad is ridiculous.
- Goalkeeper: Jordan Pickford (still), Aaron Ramsdale, James Trafford
- Defense: Trippier, Walker (experience), Stones, Saliba (via eligibility — kidding, keeping it honest), Gomez, Guéhi, Colwill, Lewis-Skelly, Trent at right-back
- Midfield: Rice, Bellingham, Mainoo, Wharton, Gordon — plus Foden drifting inside
- Attack: Kane, Palmer, Saka, Foden, Anthony Gordon, Ivan Toney
That's every position stacked two deep with genuine Champions League starters. No other nation — arguably including France — has that kind of positional depth.
The Southgate problem
Gareth Southgate got England to a final, a semi, and a quarter. Elite by England standards. But his teams were consistently out-coached in the biggest moments — reactive, conservative, and terrified of losing control.
The 2022 quarter-final against France. The 2024 Euro final. Both games England had the players to dominate. Both games they sat in, conceded possession and got punished.
Enter Tuchel
Thomas Tuchel's England is a different beast. Watch the recent friendlies against Germany and Uruguay: England pressed. They pressed high, with Rice and Mainoo as a double-pivot that rotates, not a flat sitting shield.
More importantly, Bellingham is being used as a genuine #10. Under Southgate he drifted. Under Tuchel he arrives. The timing of his runs into the box — the Real Madrid version — is back.
Kane has become a proper false nine when needed, dropping to let Gordon and Saka cut inside. That's a Tuchel signature and it makes England unreadable in ways they've never been at tournaments.
The group is generous
England drew into a comfortable group. The round of 16 should be manageable. The quarter-final is where it gets real — likely Argentina, Germany or Spain.
The prediction
Semi-final is the baseline. Final is 30% probable. Winning it outright feels like 15% — which is roughly what the bookmakers say, and in this case the market has it about right.
If Saka stays fit and Bellingham turns up in the knockouts, there is no reason this can't be the year. And I say that having written variations of that sentence before every tournament of my adult life.