Penalty shootouts are the most statistically weird part of football. Coin-flip randomness at the group level, dominant patterns at the nation level. Some teams just win shootouts. Others fold every time.
The all-time records
Germany: 4 shootouts, 4 wins. Never lost one. Lost one at Euros (1976), never at a World Cup.
Argentina: 6 shootouts, 5 wins. The one loss was the 2006 quarter-final to Germany. They won the 2014 World Cup semi-final shootout against the Netherlands, and the 2022 final against France.
Brazil: 4 shootouts, 2 wins. A surprisingly mediocre record for a nation that dominates international football.
France: 5 shootouts, 3 wins. Not bad. The most recent was the 2022 final loss to Argentina.
England: 7 shootouts, 3 wins. 4 losses. The "England lose penalties" trope is real — and the losses all came at major tournaments.
Italy: 7 shootouts, 3 wins. Lost three consecutive (1990, 1994, 1998) before finally winning in 2006.
Spain: 6 shootouts, 3 wins. Including losing the 2020 Euro semi to Italy.
What correlates with winning?
Three things.
First: goalkeeper selection. Germany has historically picked keepers who are penalty specialists. Emi Martínez of Argentina is a penalty monster. England's keepers have been inconsistent on this.
Second: taker order. The 1st, 2nd and 3rd penalty takers win most shootouts. The 4th and 5th often haven't been needed. Teams that send their best takers first outperform teams that save them for "clinching" moments.
Third: cultural pressure. England, Italy, Spain — teams where missing a penalty in a shootout is followed by a national mourning period — actually miss more than teams where it's treated as just part of football.
The 2026 shootout math
How many shootouts will there be? With 32 knockout matches, expect 7-8 shootouts at minimum.
Teams most likely to WIN a shootout if they're in one:
- Argentina — Emi Martínez is the best penalty-saving keeper in the world. 2022 final, multiple club games, he delivers.
- Germany — History is on their side. Though this specific squad hasn't been tested.
- Portugal — Cristiano Ronaldo's penalties are generally converted. Goalkeeping is solid.
- Netherlands — Bart Verbruggen is underrated as a penalty keeper.
Teams most likely to LOSE a shootout:
- England — History is history. Fortunately Pickford has been better at penalties than his predecessors.
- Spain — Relying on Unai Simón. Not a specialist.
- Italy (if they made the knockouts) — Historically dreadful.
The prediction
At least one final-eight team gets knocked out on penalties. That's a near-certainty. The team on the wrong end is probably England or Spain.
If you're predicting knockout matches: when you've got two teams that are genuinely evenly matched, bet on the team with the better keeper + better shootout history.
Watch the penalties. They decide more of the tournament than the matches themselves.